With Election Day just days away, two congressional races in Orange County could be a determining factor in who wins control of Congress.
Orange County is home to 1.8 million registered voters and in this election, it is the make-or-break voting bloc.
“In many ways we are the Bellwether County for this election because what happens in our 47th congressional district and 45th congressional district may very well determine who controls congress,” said Jon Gould, dean at the UC Irvine School of Social Ecology.
In District 45, which includes much of northern Orange County, Republican incumbent Michelle Steel is vying for a third term against newcomer and Democratic opponent Derek Tran.
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District 47, which includes coastal Orange County, Democrat Dave Min is in a tight race with Republican Scott Baugh.
“Both parties are trying to flip these races – if Dave Min doesn’t hold on to this seat, that helps the Republicans. If Michelle Steel gets tossed out of office for Derek Tran – that’s really going to help the Democrats,” said Gould.
UC Irvine conducted a poll after the March primary that asked about 800 voters how Orange County will vote, the results showed it is the county to watch.
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“This is not your father’s Orange County. A lot of people remember us as being a bright red county. Today we are truly a purple county,” said Gould. “We are one third, one third, one third – Democrat, Republican, Independent.”
Gould points to the changing demographic of Orange County, where candidates are vying for another key voting bloc – the Asian and Latino Vote.
“We think we’re beginning to see some Latino voters move center or right, where previously they would have been Democratic and we’re seeing some Asian American voters move left, where they would have been a little more to the right.”
Congressional candidates in Orange County have spent millions to get those votes. In the races for District 45 and 47, the four candidates have spent a combined $24.6 million, according to the Federal Election Commission.
