Egg prices are once again top of mind for many Americans — and it's easy to see why.

Even after a recent drop in wholesale costs, retail egg prices remain near historic highs, averaging about $6 per dozen — roughly double what people paid a year ago. It's the most Americans have paid for eggs in decades, according to a CNBC analysis of U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics data.

The surge is part of a pattern that's become increasingly familiar to U.S. grocery shoppers. While egg prices were relatively stable from the 1980s through the early 2010s, the past decade has seen three major spikes, all triggered by outbreaks of avian influenza that have been more deadly than in the past. 

The virus, which spreads rapidly through commercial flocks, has forced producers to cull tens of millions of egg-laying hens, creating sudden supply shocks that drive up prices. But the current surge stands out — not just for its severity, but its staying power.

Retail prices haven't caught up to wholesale declines

Bird flu remains a serious concern, so much so that the U.S. Department of Agriculture is boosting supply by importing more eggs from other countries. While the pace of new outbreaks has slowed from earlier in the year, the virus continues to affect poultry flocks in parts of the U.S., raising the risk of renewed supply shocks.

Despite that, wholesale egg prices have dropped sharply in recent weeks, largely because prices had already surged to record highs during the worst of the latest outbreak. 

In New York, the price of a dozen large eggs fell from a peak of $8.53 in late February to $3.93 as of March 21, according to the USDA. The New York wholesale price is a common industry benchmark.

However, retail prices haven't followed as quickly. Grocery stores often base prices on inventory bought weeks earlier and with Easter approaching, demand is expected to spike.

"Easter unsurprisingly drives a surge in egg sales, as demand spikes for egg decorating, baking and holiday meals," Thomas Weinandy, an economist at digital marketplace Upside, tells CNBC Make It. "This seasonal uptick will likely put additional pressure on an already volatile egg market, which has faced price fluctuations due to factors like feed costs, supply chain disruptions and avian flu outbreaks."

The USDA's most recent forecast says retail egg prices will increase 41.1% in 2025. However, the forecast comes with a wide margin of error, which means it could easily change depending on whether the bird flu outbreak is contained.

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