The 2018 Los Angeles Dodgers are a flawed team.
One week ago, they were 2.5 games ahead of the Colorado Rockies for first place in the National League West, and they held their destiny in their own hands.
bOne week later, after going 3-3 to the already-eliminated Padres and Diamondbacks, the Dodgers find themselves one game behind the Rockies, and in second place in the NL West, needing help from the Washington Nationals and Chicago Cubs in order for them to make the postseason.
Before you scream and shout, and point the blame at the Phillies or D-Backs, or this game or that game, know that the Dodgers created this messy bed, and now they have to sleep in it.
The Dodgers got off to a sluggish start to the season, and were 10 games below .500 on May 16. They went 1-5 against the last-place Reds and Marlins. Their bullpen is fifth worst in the Major League with 26 blown saves and they have lost 22 games this season when tied entering the ninth inning. Needless to say, they have been inconsistent all year, and played well below their potential for most of the season.
Yes, they have beaten a lot of good teams this season, yes, they have one of the most talented and deepest lineups in all of baseball, but none of that will mean anything if they don't reach the postseason, a once foregone conclusion, that is now in jeopardy.
There are essentially four possible outcomes for the Dodgers over the next three games. One involves them missing the postseason entirely, the best-case scenario would see them win their sixth consecutive NL West division title. The other two scenarios are slightly more chaotic, and reside somewhere in-between.
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Below are the pitching matchups for the final three games of the season in San Francisco at AT&T Park, as well as all of the potential outcomes for the Dodgers come Monday morning:
Friday: Hyun-Jin Ryu vs. Madison Bumgarner
Saturday: Clayton Kershaw vs. Dereck Rodriguez
Sunday: Walker Buehler vs. Andrew Suarez
Option One: Dodgers Miss the Postseason Entirely
A season full of ups and downs could come to the most disappointing end possible if the Dodgers fail to make the postseason entirely. While unlikely, this outcome is completely possible.
The Dodgers are 2-4 at AT&T Park this season and historically have a below .500 record in the house of their enemy. Despite San Francisco being eliminated from the playoffs, they would like nothing more than to spoil the fun for their rivals and eliminate them from the postseason.
Madison Bumgarner is one of the best pitchers in baseball, and he starts on Friday in a pitching matchup that should favor the Giants. On Saturday, Kershaw starts against Ivan "Pudge" Rodriguez's son, Dereck, who has posted a 2.50 ERA in 18 starts this season. On Sunday, the Dodgers will face another left-hander, Andrew Suarez, and southpaws have been their Achilles heel for most of the season.
If the Dodgers get swept by San Francisco, and the St. Louis Cardinals win two of three from the Cubs, then the Dodgers will be eliminated from the postseason entirely.
If the Dodgers lose two of three games against the Giants, then the Rockies need to win just one game this weekend against Washington, and the Cardinals would have to sweep the Cubs in order to guarantee the Dodgers do not make the playoffs.
Option Two: Dodgers Win the NL West
The five-time NL west champions will need a lot of help in order for them to win their sixth consecutive division title. In this scenario, the Dodgers will look to the Washington Nationals for help in their pursuit of the West.
If the Dodgers sweep San Francisco, then LA needs Washington to win just one game in Denver this weekend to force a one-game playoff at Dodger Stadium on Monday night to decide the NL West division. In this scenario, both teams will have access to the entirety of their 40-man roster, as it is treated like a regular season game. If the Nationals can win two games or more, and the Dodgers sweep, then they win the division.
If the Dodgers win just two games against the Giants this weekend, then they will need Washington to win at least two games against the Rockies, and if they only win one game against San Francisco, then they would need the Nationals to sweep the Rockies in order to force the playoff for the division at Dodger Stadium on Monday.
Option Three: Dodgers Win the 2nd Wild Card Spot
This is the most likely of all of the scenarios available to the Boys in Blue. Los Angeles currently stands one game ahead of the St. Louis Cardinals for the second wild card spot in the National League, and both teams are playing in meaningful games this weekend.
The Cardinals are facing their rivals, the Chicago Cubs at Wrigley Field this weekend. Despite clinching at least a wild card spot, the Cubs need to beat the Cardinals in order to win the NL Central division, and avoid a one-game playoff to advance to the NLDS.
Plain and simply, if the Dodgers sweep San Francisco this weekend, then no matter what happens with the Rockies, they will be guaranteed at least the second wild card spot and a postseason berth. If they only win one-game against the Giants, then they would need the Cardinals to also only win one game against the Cubs in order to ensure they are seeded in the second wild card spot.
If the Dodgers win two games against the Giants this weekend, then the Cardinals would have to sweep the Cubs in order to force a one-game playoff to decide the second wild card game in St. Louis on Monday.
Option Four: Dodgers Are Tied With Rockies or Cardinals, or Both
We call this option the "chaos scenario," with a potential ultimate chaotic scenario in the case all three teams have identical records after Sunday's finales.
Firstly, if for some reason the Dodgers are tied with the Rockies, but the Cardinals have a better record than both teams, then the Dodgers would host Colorado at Dodger Stadium on Monday night to decide the NL West division and a potential NLDS matchup with the Atlanta Braves. The loser would be eliminated.
If the Rockies finish ahead of the Dodgers, but Los Angeles has an identical record as the Cardinals, then they will face St .Louis at Busch stadium in a Game 163 to decide the second wild card spot. The winner of that game would face either the Brewers or Cubs in a one-game Wild Card matchup, the loser would be eliminated.
If all three teams are tied at the end of the season, then the Dodgers would host the Rockies on Monday night at Dodger Stadium to decide the NL West. A victory would give Los Angeles their sixth consecutive division title, and a date with the Atlanta Braves in the NLDS. A loss, and they would travel to St. Louis on Tuesday to play the Cardinals in a one-game winner-take-all for the second wild card spot. A loss in that game, and their season is over. A win, and they would move on to either Milwaukee or Chicago for the wild-card game, on Wednesday, and a win in that game would mean they travel to the other team's city (either Milwaukee or Chicago) to face them in an NLDS matchup.
Are those enough scenarios for you?
Bottom line: it's going to be a stressful weekend for Dodgers fans as they watch not only the results of their games with the Giants, but the Rockies and Cardinals as well. Just remember to breathe.
