Democratic Rep. Abigail Spanberger and GOP Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears are leading contenders in the 2025 Virginia governor’s race.
A whopping 38 gubernatorial races will be on the ballot from coast to coast over the next two years, contests that will shape a long list of hot-button policy issues and the directions of both political parties following the 2024 presidential election.
These include two races in 2025 — in New Jersey and Virginia — that could offer early hints at how voters are responding to the first year of President-elect Donald Trump’s second term in office.
In 2026, there will be three dozen races for governor, including in six of the seven presidential battleground states, and at least another half dozen that are widely expected to be competitive. The year’s slate of contests also includes 16 open races where incumbents are term-limited. And the jockeying by potential candidates is already well underway heading into the holiday season.
Two big races in 2025
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Just weeks after Vice President Kamala Harris’ loss to Trump, Democrats are already looking ahead to two gubernatorial races that could help the party regain momentum.
New Jersey and Virginia have been reliably blue at the presidential level, though Trump made major gains with voters in both in November.
In Virginia’s race to replace Republican Gov. Glenn Youngkin, who is term-limited, the primary contests in both parties have centered on two women, meaning the state will likely have its first female governor after the 2025 election.
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On the Republican side, Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears is the front-runner. The only other declared GOP candidate is investigative reporter Merle Rutledge, whose bid is considered a long shot. Earle-Sears is the first Black woman to hold statewide office in Virginia and has Youngkin’s endorsement.
For the Democrats, Rep. Abigail Spanberger is the only declared candidate and isn’t expected to face any significant challengers in the primary. Both parties will hold their primaries on June 17.
In New Jersey, the primary fields are already crowded for both parties in the race to replace Democratic Gov. Phil Murphy, who is term-limited.
More than six high-profile Democrats are vying for their party’s nomination, including U.S. Reps. Josh Gottheimer and Mikie Sherrill, former state Senate President Steve Sweeney, Newark Mayor Ras Baraka, Jersey City Mayor Steven Fulop and Sean Spiller, the president of the state’s teachers union.
Gottheimer has represented his northern New Jersey district since 2017 and has served as the co-chair of the bipartisan “Problem Solvers Caucus,” which helped craft the bipartisan infrastructure law, the Chips and Science Act and a gun safety law.
Sherrill, a retired Navy helicopter pilot who has represented her northern New Jersey district since 2019, has received the endorsement of EMILY’s List, a group that backs women who support abortion rights.
More than four Republicans have declared their candidacies, including former state Rep. Jack Ciattarelli, who lost the 2021 general election to Murphy, state Sen. Jon Bramnick, former state Sen. Edward Durr and conservative talk show host Bill Spadea.
New Jersey’s primary elections haven’t been scheduled yet, but they could be the first for the state’s gubernatorial races without the “county line” — a primary ballot design that gives an advantage to candidates who received the endorsement of county political parties — after a judge struck its use following a suit from Andy Kim during his successful U.S. Senate campaign.
Democrats lost ground in New Jersey and Virginia in the presidential race. Harris won Virginia by just 5.7 percentage points, about half of Joe Biden’s margin of victory four years earlier. Similarly, Harris won New Jersey by 5.9 points after Biden carried the state by 16 points in 2020. Her victory in New Jersey was the narrowest win in a presidential race by a Democrat in the state in 32 years.
Democrats suggested that their eventual nominees in both races would focus on “core” issues that could help them appeal across party lines.
“Our party always has more work to do, and each state is different,” Democratic Governors Association spokesperson Sam Newton said in an interview. “At the same time, I think you’re going to see Democrats run on the core issues that are impacting families every day, like affordability, like improving education, like keeping families safe, while also standing up for fundamental freedoms.”
Newton also said the races might offer a look at whether voters in each state — who shifted dramatically toward Trump last month — are content with his first months in office, as well as the Republican trifecta across Washington, D.C.
“Democratic governors have shown that you can compete and win everywhere when you are talking about those everyday issues impacting families and standing up for fundamental freedoms,” Newton said, nodding to Democratic gubernatorial wins in North Carolina this year and Kentucky last year. “The contrast with Republicans could potentially be much starker with Donald Trump and Republicans in control of the White House. … Republicans in control in D.C. really does raise the stakes, because it means that electing and re-electing Democratic governors in the states are going to be our best path forward for progress.”
Republicans, for their part, expressed optimism that a message focused on cost of living and education would boost their eventual nominees in both states.
“Voters across the country have shown they support commonsense, conservative leadership that is focused on meaningful change and competent governance, and that’s exactly what Republican governors are doing in their states every day,” said Republican Governors Association spokesperson Courtney Alexander. “We’re looking forward to competitive races over the next two years as we work to elect even more Republican governors.”
2026 battlegrounds
Meanwhile, 2026 will feature gubernatorial races in 36 states, including a half dozen presidential battlegrounds.
In Arizona, Democratic Gov. Katie Hobbs, who won her 2022 election by just 17,000 votes, is all but certain to face a tough re-election bid.
In Georgia, incumbent Republican Gov. Brian Kemp is term-limited. GOP state Attorney General Chris Carr became the first major candidate from either party to jump into the race in November.
The race in Michigan will also be open, with Democratic Gov. Gretchen Whitmer term-limited. And the race to replace her became quickly scrambled after Detroit Mayor Mike Duggan, a longtime Democrat, announced he would run for the seat as an independent.
“The current system forces people to choose sides, not find solutions. I want to see if I can change that,” he said in his campaign announcement video.
Duggan is the first major candidate to launch a campaign, though the Democratic primary field is expected to be crowded. Lt. Gov. Garlin Gilchrist, state Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson, U.S. Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg (who moved with his family to the Traverse City area in 2022) and state Sen. Mallory McMorrow are all among the potential Democratic contenders.
In Nevada, Republican Gov. Joe Lombardo, who won his 2022 race by just 15,000 votes, will look to keep his seat in a swing state that has grown even more competitive in recent years. (Over the prior two midterm-year gubernatorial cycles, 2018 and 2022, Nevada was the only state where control flipped both years.)
In Wisconsin, Democratic Gov. Tony Evers, 73, must first decide whether to run for a third term. No candidate has entered the race on either side in Wisconsin.
In Pennsylvania, Democratic Gov. Josh Shapiro, a potential 2028 presidential contender, will be up for re-election in the pivotal battleground.
Arizona, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin are among the five states where Democratic governors will be up for re-election where Trump won the 2024 presidential race.
The fifth is Kansas, a reliably red state where Democratic Gov. Laura Kelly has nevertheless won two terms as governor. Republicans see the seat — Kelly is term-limited and no candidates have yet entered the race — as their strongest flip opportunity.
Open 2026 races
In addition to Georgia, Michigan and Kansas, another 13 states’ gubernatorial races will be open, with the incumbents facing term limits.
Democrats will seek to hold on to gubernatorial seats in California, Colorado, Maine and New Mexico, while Republicans will attempt to do so in Alabama, Alaska, Florida, Ohio, Oklahoma, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee and Wyoming.
While many of these races, taking place in solidly red or blue states, will not be competitive in the general election, the primaries will offer revealing windows into the futures of both parties.
For instance, the race to replace California Gov. Gavin Newsom — who is seen as a possible presidential candidate in 2028 — already features some big Democratic names. These include Lt. Gov. Eleni Kounalakis, Superintendent of Public Instruction Tony Thurmond, former state Sen. Toni Atkins, former state Controller Betty Yee and former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa. Plus, Harris and outgoing Health and Human Services Secretary Xavier Becerra have been floated as potential entrants as they consider their next steps following the Biden administration’s exit.
A similar landscape could unfold in Florida in the race to succeed Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis, who is also term-limited. No high-profile names have yet entered the race, though former Rep. Matt Gaetz and current Rep. Byron Donalds are among the Republicans who have topped recent lists of potential candidates.
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