On a crisp Saturday night in December, the Los Angeles Rams found themselves on the edge of glory—and also disaster.
In a game that tested their resilience and grit, the Rams eked out a 13-9 victory over the Arizona Cardinals at SoFi Stadium, a win that propelled them within reach of the NFC West crown.
Ahkello Witherspoon delivered the defining moment with 37 seconds left, diving for a fingertip interception in the end zone on a deflected Kyler Murray pass intended for tight end Trey McBride. The ball ricocheted off McBride’s helmet, soaring like a misguided wish, before landing in Witherspoon’s waiting arms. It was a play emblematic of the Rams' season—opportunistic, gutsy, and just enough.
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But what does that interception and the Rams victory mean for the NFC West?
Well, we’re glad you asked.
The victory moved the Rams to 10-6, giving them a staggering 99.9% chance of clinching the NFC West.
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For the Rams, their path to win their first NFC West division title since 2021 is clear (sorta):
The Rams need three of the following five teams (or two and one tie) to win in Week 17 in order for the NFC West division to be theirs.
The Vikings (vs. Packers), Bills (vs. Jets), 49ers (vs. Lions), Commanders (vs. Falcons), and Browns (vs. Dolphins).
“No, I’m just going to put my head in the sand,” said a joking Rams’ head coach Sean McVay when asked if he will be watching the slate of games on Sunday (and possibly Monday) to see if his team will win the NFC West. “Yes. I’ll be watching tomorrow. If there’s a chance that we can win the division, than I’m going to be paying attention to that.”
On the flip side, the mathematical equation necessary for the Rams to NOT win the division is even more complicated and fascinating. The Seahawks need a combination of 14 different outcomes to happen in both Week 17 and 18, including the fact that they have to beat the Rams at SoFi Stadium head-to-head next Sunday.
Once again, experts predict the chances of that happening are 0.01%, but here they are nonetheless.
If the following five teams win in Week 17, the Seahawks chances will increase heading into Week 18.
The Packers (at Vikings), Jets (at Bills), Lions (at 49ers), Falcons (at Commanders), and Dolphins (at Browns), all need to win in Week 17.
If those five outcomes happen, and the Seahawks beat the Rams in their final game. Then the following EIGHT outcomes will need to happen in Week 18 for the Seahawks to win the NFC West.
The Bears (vs. Packers), Cardinals (vs. 49ers), Lions (vs. Vikings), Chargers (at Raiders), Dolphins (at Jets), Patriots (vs. Bills), Bucs (vs. Saints), and Falcons (vs. Panthers).
Does that make your head spin? Now you know why the odds are 0.01 percent.
For the Rams, securing the division would mark Sean McVay’s fourth NFC West title in eight seasons and a validation of their late-season surge. They’ve won nine of their last 11 games, including five straight, a testament to McVay’s ability to galvanize his team after a shaky start to the year.
The NFC West race now feels like a tale of two teams headed in opposite directions. For the Rams, a postseason berth feels inevitable; the only question is whether they’ll enter their Week 18 matchup as division champions and be able to rest some of their veteran starts or have to wait until Week 18. For the Seahawks, the math is daunting, and the odds even more so.
The Rams will host Seattle in Week 18, a matchup that could either serve as a coronation or a sudden-death showdown.
